Obama’s Move: Iran and Afghanistan – By George Friedman
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During the 2008 U.S. presidential campaign, now-U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said that like all U.S. presidents, Barack Obama would face a foreign policy test early in his presidency if elected. That test is now here. His test comprises two apparently distinct challenges, one in Afghanistan and one in Iran. While different problems, they have three elements in common. First, they involve the question of his administration’s overarching strategy in the Islamic world. Second, the problems are approaching decision points (and making no decision represents a decision here). And third, they are playing out very differently than Obama expected during the 2008 campaign. During the campaign, Obama portrayed the Iraq war as a massive mistake diverting the United States from Afghanistan, the true center of the “war on terror.” He accordingly promised to shift the focus away from Iraq and back to Afghanistan. Obama’s views on Iran were more amorphous. He supported the doctrine that Iran should not be permitted to obtain nuclear weapons, while at the same time asserted that engaging Iran was both possible and desirable. Embedded in the famous argument over whether offering talks without preconditions was appropriate (something now-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attacked him for during the Democratic primary) was the idea that the problem with Iran stemmed from Washington’s refusal to engage in talks with Tehran. Read more » Weblinks: http://www.whorunsgov.com/Profiles/Gen._Stanley_A._McChrystal Commander’s Initial Assessment – 30 August 2009 http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/Assessment_Redacted_092109.pdf
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If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster…(If poem by Rudyard Kipling)
New Labour’s Party Conference slogan “Operation Fightback” spells the situation out for party delegates and canvassers quite clearly, and this is; what’s in the pit of every supporter’s stomachs must come to the surface.
Since having green custard thrown over him by a certain Miss Leila Deen, a Plane Stupid protesting group member, who has among many remonstrated and campaigned against plans for a third runway at Heathrow in the UK.
Months on from that event, smooth manoeuvrer Lord Mandelson who probably remembers the day pretty well, made a platform speech to those listening in the conference hall venue which was recognizably very quirky and ramble rousing.
Weblinks:
Alistair Darling’s to Labour Party Conference.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-ORvwo4cNs&feature=youtube_gdata
Peter Mandelson.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISVzOdsR8I8
Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnVB6-qf_o8
Gordon Brown interviewed by Sky’s political editor Adam Boulton.
The Sun Newspaper’s switches to supporting the Conservatives
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While in comparison, the message from the German public is somewhat more positive.
The CDU (Christian Democratic Union) with their rock-solid party leader/mogul gave the all important nod to Miss Angela Merkel to ascend again as Chancellor with their faithful allies the FDP (Free Democratic Party).
Preliminary signs before the actual result showed that CDU and FDP together were expected to gain 330 seats in the 620-politically extricated Bundestag.
Germany therefore prepares itself for the shaping of a centre-right coalition government.
Weblinks:
http://www.angus-reid.com/issue/C7/
http://www.aicgs.org/analysis/special/election09/home.aspx
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=107263§ionid=351020604
http://www.euractiv.com/en/elections/merkel-fire-pre-election-tv-debate/article-185388
Pittsburgh G20 and the Future.
Needing to realise that he is more genuinely respected as an erudite and firmly political meritocratic, President Obama has thankfully sounded less like a screaming evangelist during the lengths of both the latest UN Summit in New York and the G20 Pittsburgh Conference.
Speaking directly to other World Leaders, Mr Obama accentuated on aspects of this speech in a wholly different way than I remember him doing as a nominal presidential candidate, when he was preoccupied and eager to press on with his electoral campaign.
Every country’s capacity for keeping up of a solidly good and fortuitous political dialogue through consecutive years of one and another’s working relationships is near impossibe.
While a varitable depth of intellectual and cultural perspicaciousness is possessed by all peoples of the world, the more sinister machinations of rogue, religious or militarised governments surely need to be looked-out for.
International politics is both multi-layered and multi-faceted, and even though the Obama Administration has shown itself to be particularly fastidious with how its dealing with issues at present, (i.e Financial Recoveries, Iran and the matter of Nuclear Non-Proliferation).
Obama should maintain a weariness about over extending his personal reach of influence, tackling everything at once as he is, asking that America turn itself inside out, making itself unrecognisable to external observers and bending over backwards for the sake of change. Barack Obama is in for the most turbulent ride of his life and career.
Weblinks: http://www.g20pittsburghsummit.org/
http://pittsburgh.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/stories/2009/05/25/daily34.html
The Death of a Top Indonesian Militant – By Scott Stewart
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On Saturday, Sept. 19, the Indonesian National Police announced that a DNA test has positively identified a man killed Sept. 17 as Noordin Mohammad Top. Top was killed in a raid on a safe-house in the outskirts of Solo, Central Java, that resulted in a prolonged firefight between Indonesian authorities and militants. Police said four militants were killed in the incident and three more were taken into custody. (Two of them were arrested before the raid.) Authorities also recovered a large quantity of explosives during the raid that they believe the militant group was preparing to use in an attack on Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Indonesian National Police had reported Sept. 17 that the dead man’s fingerprints matched Top’s. But given several inaccurate reports of Top’s demise in the past, combined with reports that the body believed to be Top’s was headless — perhaps due to the explosion of a suicide belt — most observers were waiting for DNA confirmation before removing Top’s name from the pinnacle of the organizational chart of Tanzim Qaedat al-Jihad. Read more »
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112893914 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/17/AR2009091700504.html?nav=hcmodule |
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Afghan Trio arrested by the FBI
We all know by now that the workings of the Neo-Conservative philosophy of carrying out ”Pre-emptive action” during the Bush Years did not at all help America’s reputation for championing any true ideological basis of Democracy, Human Rights or action against the use of torture. For as bygone as the Bush Years are, something of a strong sense of determinism has been left behind.
The arrest of three Afghan men within the recent past for giving investigating FBI agents misleading statements, has succinctly demonstrated the superb efficiency in America’s Homeland Security intelligence apparattus since the 9/11 attacks.
A country on it’s guard.
Employed as a airport shuttle driver, a Mr Najibullah Zazi aged 24 was arrested together with his father, a Mohammed Zazi, 53 at the end of last week. Both men appeared in court in Colorado yesterday (Monday).
A third person named as Ahmad Wais Afzali, 37 has similarly appeared in court in New York at the beginning of this week. All three are Afghan nationals.
Interviewed by the Denver Post Mr Zazi, has denied every accusation pointing to any proof of his involvement in a terrorist plot and thus either harbouring political sympathy for al-Qaeda or membership to splinter-like fundamentalist cells.
Weblinks:
http://iplextra.indiatimes.com/article/0fJXdji55D18z/articles?q=
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/World/Story/STIStory_432498.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/09/20/national/main5323950.shtml
Disaster Averted at Audenshaw (“He alone, who owns the youth, gains the future” – Adolf Hitler)
Helping to aquit Ross McKnight, one of the two students who had set their minds on carrying out a copycat Columbine-style massacre at Audenshaw High School, Mancester in the UK; Barrister Mr Roderick Carus QC defending Ross said that,
“These boys had fanaticized over executing their plans to attack Audenshaw School and the local Crown Point North Shopping Mall in Denton, but had decided freely and independently on reflection about not going through with it”.
A Miss Alice Adshead, also a student at Audenshaw High School gave evidence at the Crown Court against co-defendant Matthew Swift spoke about how he would express distain about his school, or rather hated it, wishing to torch the place (Audenshaw School).
Tied in to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the Columbine atrocity instigated by Americans, Dylan Klebold and Eric Harris in 1999. Mobile phone clips attibutable to the schemes of these two were shown to the jury.
This user-generated content shows them allegedly experimenting with explosives, pipe-bomb and Molotov cocktails.
Their overall court appearance lasted for 45 minutes and they later spoke to reporters outside.
Weblinks: http://video.aol.co.uk/video-detail/cleared-bomb-plot-boys-want-to-get-on-with-our-lives/2738904604
http://www.smh.com.au/world/british-teenagers-planned-copycat-columbine-20090903-f8nc.html
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1399666?UserKey=
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/39Columbine39-plot-prosecution-accused-of.5656007.jp
Misreading the Iranian Situation – By George Friedman
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The Iranians have now agreed to talks with the P-5+1, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China) plus Germany. These six countries decided in late April to enter into negotiations with Iran over the suspected Iranian nuclear weapons program by Sept. 24, the date of the next U.N. General Assembly meeting. If Iran refused to engage in negotiations by that date, the Western powers in the P-5+1 made clear that they would seriously consider imposing much tougher sanctions on Iran than those that were currently in place. The term “crippling” was mentioned several times. Obviously, negotiations are not to begin prior to the U.N. General Assembly meeting as previously had been stipulated. The talks are now expected to begin Oct. 1, a week later. This gives the Iranians their first (symbolic) victory: They have defied the P-5+1 on the demand that talks be under way by the time the General Assembly meets. Inevitably, the Iranians would delay, and the P-5+1 would not make a big deal of it. Read more » This excerpt has been republished by www.jotl.wordpress.com Attribution for this article goes to www.stratfor.com
Weblinks: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Iran_Nuclear_Proposals http://www.america.gov/st/peacesec-english/2009/September/20090915094338dmslahrellek0.3359644.html |
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Convergence: The Challenge of Aviation Security – By Scott Stewart
As-Sahab media released an audio statement purportedly made by Osama bin Laden that was intended to address the American people on the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.
In the message, the voice alleged to be that of bin Laden said the reason for the 9/11 attacks was U.S. support for Israel. He also said that if the American people wanted to free themselves from “fear and intellectual terrorism,” the United States must cut its support for Israel.
If the United States continues to support Israel, the voice warned, al Qaeda would continue its war against the United States “on all possible fronts” — a not so subtle threat of additional terrorist attacks.
Elsewhere on Sept. 14, a judge at Woolwich Crown Court in the United Kingdom sentenced four men to lengthy prison sentences for their involvement in the disrupted 2006 plot to destroy multiple aircraft over the Atlantic using liquid explosives.
The man authorities claimed was the leader of the cell, Abdulla Ahmed Ali, was sentenced to serve at least 40 years. The cell’s apparent logistics man, Assad Sarwar, was sentenced to at least 36 years.
Cell member Tanvir Hussain was given a sentence of at least 32 years and cell member Umar Islam was sentenced to a minimum of 22 years in prison.
The convergence of these two events (along with the recent release of convicted Pan Am 103 bomber Abdel Basset Ali al-Megrahi and the amateurish Sept. 9 hijacking incident in Mexico using a hoax improvised explosive device [IED]) has drawn our focus back to the topic of aviation security — in particular, IED attacks against aircraft.
As we weave the strands of these independent events together, they remind us not only that attacks against aircraft are dramatic, generate a lot of publicity and can cause very high body counts (9/11), but also that such attacks can be conducted simply and quite inexpensively with an eye toward avoiding preventative security measures (the 2006 liquid-explosives plot.) Read more »
This excerpt has been republished by www.jotl.wordpress.com
Attribution for this article goes to www.stratfor.com
Weblinks: http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/profiles/abdula_ahmed_ali.htm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzkognmO1FI
http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/profiles/tanvir_hussain.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/profiles/assad_sarwar.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/profiles/umar_islam.htm
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US HealthCare Reform
Sometimes events and circumstances do manage to proceed any one person’s reputation. President Barack Obama just might say that this is true in light of all he’s had a hand in remedying since taking the presidential oath of office.
Knuckling down to sort out the challenges of the global economic recession, as far as I remember, he supported the implementaion of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, and continues to pour scorn on the practices of bankers and CEO’s rewarding themselves excessively in remunerations, dividends and other types of bonuses.
Sustained discussion on cable networks about what the Democrats hope to achieve with their healthcare reform plans is being heralded extraordinary.
As president of the States and as a leading advocate for these changes, Barack Obama has a huge feat ahead of him, especially in attempting to bring about as big a cultural shift in America that’s ever possible to announce.
Although he seems skilled at driving up people’s motivations towards deciding on a right course of action or doing things in general, Obama must realise by now that the adage about “not being able to please all of the people all of the time” is wholeheartedly very true.
Him and his Administration will be ready and willing to face up to whatever depth of contention these tumultuous revisions may cause.
There is’nt the time for any retreat over this policy and Obama should’nt shy away from it.
Weblinks: http://www.healthreform.gov/
http://americanaffairs.suite101.com/article.cfm/president_obamas_health_care_reform_2009
http://www.oecdwash.org/PDFILES/ECO_WP_Health_Reform_US.pdf
http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/health_care/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/16/AR2009071602242.html
With Anglo, Libyan, & Celtic Connections
The downside of all political decision-making means that achieving an outright clear consenus upon an issue is almost downright impossible.
It turns out that the Scotland’s Justice Secretary, Mr Kenny MacAskill had in a roundabout sort of way made the most appropriate evaluation over the release and extradition of Mr Abdelbaset Al Mohmed Al-Megrahi to return back home to Libya.
Stood next to German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin, UK Prime Minister Mr Gordon Brown had no choice but to break away from speaking like a plaintiff about global economic reform and recovery. By not stay on-message he had seemingly finished with verbally attacking city floor traders within London’s Square Mile.
The divertion came when during a conference he was forced to commit the British Government into compensating the victims of an IRA atrocity carried out in 1993, and which known as the “the Warrington Bombing”.
Libya has been tied into this controversy due to its associations with the IRA throughout the 1980’s and 1990’s. Semtex and other munitions were sold to the IRA for a range of planned operations, the Warrington Bombing is included among these.
Weblinks:
http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/latestnews/Libya-plans-to-fight-UKs.5622896.jp
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/sep/06/ira-libya-victims
Stories of legal appeals made by the victims of the Warrington Bombing.
http://www.lastingtribute.co.uk/tribute/victims/2758952
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2006/apr/23/uk.northernireland
http://icliverpool.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/0100regionalnews/tm_objectid=16925856&method=full&siteid=50061&headline=tim-parry-s-father-to-sue-libya-over-ira-death-bomb-name_page.html
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